February 1st, 2016
This week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports that are likely to influence mortgage rates. The week opens and closes with key reports for the markets to digest and in between is some moderately important data. With relevant data scheduled for release four of the five days, we should see another active week for mortgage rates.
The first report comes early Monday morning when December’s Personal Income and Outlays data is posted at 8:30 AM ET. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits, making it relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.2% meaning consumers had a little more money to spend in December than they did in November. The spending reading is expected to also rise 0.2%, indicating consumers spent more. Stronger readings would be good news for the stock markets and could hurt bond prices, driving mortgage rates higher. Weaker than expected increases or declines would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would hint that consumer spending is weaker than thought, limiting economic growth.
Also set for release Monday is the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for January. This index tracks manufacturer sentiment by rating surveyed trade executives’ opinions of business conditions. It is usually the first economic data released each month and is one of the very important reports we get monthly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading in the neighborhood of 48.3, which would be a slight change from December’s reading of 48.2. The lower the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates because weaker sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector.
Next up is Wednesday’s ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This release has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. It tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company’s clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and also is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows a couple days later. Still, because we see a reaction to its results, it is included in this week’s calendar. Analysts are expecting to see 190,000 new jobs. Good news would be a much smaller number of jobs.
Employee Productivity and Costs data for the 4th quarter will be released early Thursday morning. It can cause some movement in the bond market, but should have a minimal impact on mortgage pricing. If the productivity reading varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts of a 1.7% decline, we may see some movement in mortgage rates. Higher levels of worker productivity is good news for the bond market because it allows the economy to expand while keeping inflation subdued.
December’s Factory Orders data is also scheduled to be posted Thursday morning but at 10:00 AM ET. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, but this data includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is not one of the more important reports we get each month, however, it can influence mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting a 2.6% decline in new orders, indicating a softening manufacturing sector. The bond market would like to see a larger decline, meaning that manufacturing activity was even weaker than many had thought.
Friday has the big news of the week. The Labor Department will release the almighty Employment report for January at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a much smaller increase in payrolls than expected and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the unemployment rate of 5.0% and approximately 188,000 new jobs added to the economy. Stronger than expected readings will likely fuel a stock market rally and selling in bonds that would cause a sizable upward revision to mortgage rates. On the other hand, disappointing numbers would raise concerns about the strength of economy and would likely lead to a sizable improvement in mortgage pricing.
Overall, Friday is easily the best candidate for most important day of the week although we could see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates Monday also. The calmest day will probably be Tuesday. I am fully expecting to see another very active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.